Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States
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چکیده
Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be farreaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty Climatic Change (2015) 131:127–141 DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1279-9 This article is part of a Special Issue on “AMulti-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States” edited by Jeremy Martinich, John Reilly, Stephanie Waldhoff, Marcus Sarofim, and James McFarland. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1279-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. K. Strzepek (*) : E. Monier Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA e-mail: [email protected] J. Neumann : B. Boehlert : D. Johnson : J. Strzepek Industrial Economics, Cambridge, MA, USA J. Smith : J. Henderson : C. Wobus : R. Jones Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO, USA J. Martinich US Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Washington, DC, USA M. Hejazi : K. Calvin Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA J.<H. Yoon Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand.
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تاریخ انتشار 2015